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Research 2026-08-31 Decision-making Bern

Expert judgement or simple rule: what half a century of research says

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Expert judgement or simple rule: what half a century of research says — SHR, Bern
Expert judgement or simple rule: what half a century of research says — SHR, Bern

Trust an experienced decision-maker's intuition or an explicit grid? The question has been compared many times.

The synthesis

William Grove and co-authors (2000, Psychological Assessment) meta-analyse 'mechanical' versus 'clinical' predictions: the former are on average as good or better in most studies.

The extension

Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony and Cass Sunstein (2021, Noise, Little, Brown) show professional judgements on identical cases vary widely across people; the book synthesises heterogeneous work.

Expert judgement or simple rule: what half a century of research says — SHR, Bern — Berne
Expert judgement or simple rule: what half a century of research says — SHR, Bern — Berne

The nuance

Rules excel mainly when situations repeat and criteria are measurable; with the unprecedented, judgement remains essential. (our executive and employee training programmes)

The limit of common practice

Hiring or allocation decisions often rest on an overall impression without weighted criteria set in advance.

A practical check in Bern

For upcoming hires, set four separately scored criteria before the interview, then after a year compare scores with observed performance. To go further: explore the Decision-making training in Bern, or browse our executive and employee training programmes in Switzerland.

In pictures: Decision-making in Bern

Decision-making training in Bern — in practice
Decision-making training in Bern — in practice
Decision-making training in Bern — hands-on workshop
Decision-making training in Bern — hands-on workshop
Decision-making training in Bern — on the ground
Decision-making training in Bern — on the ground

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