The pre-mortem: imagining failure to decide better
How can a team surface objections it dares not voice before a decision? The pre-mortem rests on a cognitive mechanism studied since the 1980s.
The mechanism
Deborah Mitchell, J. Edward Russo and Nancy Pennington (1989, Journal of Behavioral Decision Making) show imagining an event as having already occurred increases the reasons generated to explain it.
The method
Gary Klein (2007, Harvard Business Review) derives the pre-mortem: before deciding, the team imagines the project failed and lists why. It is a practitioner method, little evaluated in controlled organisational studies.
The nuance
It widens the risk inventory; it does not guarantee action or lower overall optimism. (our executive and employee training programmes)
The limit of common practice
Classic risk reviews ask people to critique a plan defended by its author, which inhibits doubt.
A practical check in Lausanne
For the next major decision, run a twenty-minute pre-mortem and keep the list. Six months later, check which real difficulties were on it. To go further: explore the Decision-making training in Lausanne, or browse our executive and employee training programmes in Switzerland.
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