In Berne, when should an ongoing project be reassessed?
In Berne's federal administration, public health, telecommunications and precision industry, a project can become difficult to question once it is under way. For the “Management complexe” programme at SHR — Swiss Human Resources, the managerial question is specific: how can its continuation be reassessed without allowing past investments to stand in for an argument?
What the literature establishes
Barry Staw (1976, Organizational Behavior and Human Performance) demonstrated experimentally that personal responsibility for an initial decision could encourage further financial commitment following negative results. Persistence therefore does not necessarily reflect a favourable assessment of future prospects: it may also help justify an earlier choice. This finding identifies a decision-making risk, not grounds for assuming that every manager who continues a project is acting irrationally.
The weight of sunk costs
Hal Arkes and Catherine Blumer (1985, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes) documented the sunk cost effect: having already invested money, time or effort can encourage continuation of an action. Their work links this effect, in particular, to a desire not to appear wasteful. This mechanism is distinct from initial responsibility alone: the past investment can itself influence the present choice.
The premature conclusion
One might conclude that disappointing projects should be stopped earlier; these studies nevertheless provide no universal stopping threshold. Sunk costs must be distinguished from the future costs of termination, legal obligations and benefits that remain plausible. Continuing may still be justified, but by comparing future options rather than by the amount already spent. (our executive and employee training programmes)
What the evidence cannot settle
These studies measure neither the frequency nor the magnitude of these mechanisms in organisations in Berne. Their experimental settings do not reproduce the full range of interdependencies, public responsibilities and technical constraints involved in a real project. An independent review may therefore be a reasonable precaution, without being presented as a remedy whose effectiveness these articles have demonstrated.
A practical check in Berne
Within the “Management complexe” programme, SHR can propose an exercise applicable to a federal administration project, a public health initiative, a telecoms rollout or a precision-industry investment: record sunk costs, future costs and expected benefits for each option separately. At the next portfolio review, measure the proportion of continuation decisions supported by a written comparison with an option to scale down, redirect or stop, reporting both the numerator and the denominator. This proportion can be verified in the decision records; it measures the traceability of reasoning, not the absence of bias or the future success of projects. To go further: explore the Complex Management training in Bern in the canton of Bern, or browse our executive and employee training programmes in Switzerland.
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