{
  "title": "A positive signal: what base rates change in decision-making",
  "url": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/signal-positif-ce-que-le-taux-de-base-change-a-la-decision-en",
  "language": "en",
  "datePublished": "2026-04-19",
  "publisher": {
    "name": "SHR — Swiss Human Resources",
    "url": "https://www.shr.swiss",
    "address": "Esplanade de Pont-Rouge 9A, 1212 Lancy, Suisse"
  },
  "summary": "A signal considered reliable does not establish that an opportunity is real. Research suggests also examining how common the phenomenon being detected actually is.",
  "section": "Research",
  "topic": "Decision-making",
  "place": {
    "name": "Basel",
    "region": "Bâle-Ville",
    "country": "CH"
  },
  "keyPoints": [
    {
      "heading": "What the literature establishes",
      "point": "Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky (1973, Psychological Review) showed that predictive judgements can rely on how closely a case resembles a category rather than on the information needed for a probabilistic estimate."
    },
    {
      "heading": "The denominator a signal can obscure",
      "point": "Gerd Gigerenzer and Ulrich Hoffrage (1995, Psychological Review) showed that presenting information as natural frequencies can facilitate Bayesian reasoning without prior instruction in the rule."
    },
    {
      "heading": "The premature conclusion",
      "point": "One might conclude that replacing percentages with counts is enough."
    },
    {
      "heading": "What the available evidence does not guarantee",
      "point": "These studies concern experimental judgement tasks, not the effectiveness of a [decision-making](/formation/prise-de-decision/bale) system in a Basel company."
    },
    {
      "heading": "A practical check in Bâle",
      "point": "As part of SHR's “Decision-making” programme, a Basel team in pharmaceuticals, life sciences or Rhine logistics could review resource commitments based on a test or an alert over a period defined in advance."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "authors": "Tversky",
      "year": "1973",
      "source": "Psychological Review"
    },
    {
      "authors": "Hoffrage",
      "year": "1995",
      "source": "Psychological Review"
    }
  ],
  "wordCount": 438,
  "image": "https://www.shr.swiss/img/blog-editorial-2026-04-19-en.jpg?v=4",
  "translations": {
    "fr": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/signal-positif-ce-que-le-taux-de-base-change-a-la-decision",
    "en": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/signal-positif-ce-que-le-taux-de-base-change-a-la-decision-en",
    "de": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/signal-positif-ce-que-le-taux-de-base-change-a-la-decision-de",
    "it": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/signal-positif-ce-que-le-taux-de-base-change-a-la-decision-it"
  },
  "relatedPages": {
    "programme": "https://www.shr.swiss/formation/prise-de-decision/bale",
    "city": "https://www.shr.swiss/formations-ville/bale",
    "blog": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog"
  },
  "citationPolicy": "Citation autorisée avec mention « SHR — Swiss Human Resources » et lien vers l'article."
}