{
  "title": "Runs of results: what chance does not compensate for",
  "url": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/series-de-resultats-ce-que-le-hasard-ne-compense-pas-en",
  "language": "en",
  "datePublished": "2025-06-22",
  "publisher": {
    "name": "SHR — Swiss Human Resources",
    "url": "https://www.shr.swiss",
    "address": "Esplanade de Pont-Rouge 9A, 1212 Lancy, Suisse"
  },
  "summary": "After several incidents, a return to normal can seem imminent. Research suggests separating that expectation from an actual analysis of the process.",
  "section": "Research",
  "topic": "Decision-making",
  "place": {
    "name": "Vevey",
    "region": "Vaud",
    "country": "CH"
  },
  "keyPoints": [
    {
      "heading": "What the literature establishes",
      "point": "Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman (1971, Psychological Bulletin) describe the belief that a small sample should faithfully reproduce the properties of the population from which it is drawn."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Why a return to balance seems plausible",
      "point": "Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky (1972, Cognitive Psychology) examine probability judgements based on representativeness: an outcome seems likely when it resembles what people expect from the process producing it."
    },
    {
      "heading": "The premature conclusion",
      "point": "It would nevertheless be wrong to conclude that previous outcomes should never influence a decision."
    },
    {
      "heading": "What these studies cannot decide",
      "point": "These studies concern probability judgements, not the effectiveness of a quality-control policy in a company on the Swiss Riviera."
    },
    {
      "heading": "A practical check in Vevey",
      "point": "As part of SHR’s [decision-making](/formation-prise-de-decision-vevey) programme, a purchasing team at the headquarters of a global food group or at an SME on the Swiss Riviera could pilot a post-incident forecasting log in Vevey."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "authors": "Kahneman",
      "year": "1971",
      "source": "Psychological Bulletin"
    },
    {
      "authors": "Tversky",
      "year": "1972",
      "source": "Cognitive Psychology"
    }
  ],
  "wordCount": 420,
  "image": "https://www.shr.swiss/img/blog-Training-Decision-Making-Vevey-series-de-resultats-ce-que-le-hasard-ne-compense-pas-en.jpg?v=4",
  "translations": {
    "fr": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/series-de-resultats-ce-que-le-hasard-ne-compense-pas",
    "en": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/series-de-resultats-ce-que-le-hasard-ne-compense-pas-en",
    "de": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/series-de-resultats-ce-que-le-hasard-ne-compense-pas-de",
    "it": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/series-de-resultats-ce-que-le-hasard-ne-compense-pas-it"
  },
  "relatedPages": {
    "programme": "https://www.shr.swiss/formation-prise-de-decision-vevey",
    "city": "https://www.shr.swiss/formations-ville/vevey",
    "blog": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog"
  },
  "citationPolicy": "Citation autorisée avec mention « SHR — Swiss Human Resources » et lien vers l'article."
}