{
  "title": "Selecting the best project: what the ranking may overestimate",
  "url": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/selectionner-le-meilleur-projet-ce-que-le-classement-peut-surestimer-en",
  "language": "en",
  "datePublished": "2026-03-30",
  "publisher": {
    "name": "SHR — Swiss Human Resources",
    "url": "https://www.shr.swiss",
    "address": "Esplanade de Pont-Rouge 9A, 1212 Lancy, Suisse"
  },
  "summary": "Choosing the project with the highest estimated return appears rigorous. Yet selection can concentrate favourable errors, even without systematic optimism.",
  "section": "Research",
  "topic": "Decision-making",
  "place": {
    "name": "Neuchâtel",
    "region": "Neuchâtel",
    "country": "CH"
  },
  "keyPoints": [
    {
      "heading": "What the literature establishes",
      "point": "James E."
    },
    {
      "heading": "The related mechanism of the winner’s curse",
      "point": "Richard H."
    },
    {
      "heading": "The premature conclusion",
      "point": "One might conclude that managers should avoid the top-ranked project or apply a uniform discount to every forecast."
    },
    {
      "heading": "What internal data alone cannot show",
      "point": "The finding of James E."
    },
    {
      "heading": "A practical check in Neuchâtel",
      "point": "At a Neuchâtel company working in microtechnology, watchmaking or precision microelectronics, SHR’s “[Decision-making](/formation/prise-de-decision/neuchatel)” programme can use an equipment investment comparison as an exercise."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "authors": "Winkler",
      "year": "2006",
      "source": "Management Science"
    },
    {
      "authors": "Thaler",
      "year": "1988",
      "source": "Journal of Economic Perspectives"
    }
  ],
  "wordCount": 402,
  "image": "https://www.shr.swiss/img/blog-editorial-2026-03-30-en.jpg?v=4",
  "translations": {
    "fr": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/selectionner-le-meilleur-projet-ce-que-le-classement-peut-surestimer",
    "en": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/selectionner-le-meilleur-projet-ce-que-le-classement-peut-surestimer-en",
    "de": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/selectionner-le-meilleur-projet-ce-que-le-classement-peut-surestimer-de",
    "it": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/selectionner-le-meilleur-projet-ce-que-le-classement-peut-surestimer-it"
  },
  "relatedPages": {
    "programme": "https://www.shr.swiss/formation/prise-de-decision/neuchatel",
    "city": "https://www.shr.swiss/formations-ville/neuchatel",
    "blog": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog"
  },
  "citationPolicy": "Citation autorisée avec mention « SHR — Swiss Human Resources » et lien vers l'article."
}