{
  "title": "Detailed scenarios: what coherence does not guarantee",
  "url": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/scenario-detaille-ce-que-la-coherence-ne-garantit-pas-en",
  "language": "en",
  "datePublished": "2026-01-26",
  "publisher": {
    "name": "SHR — Swiss Human Resources",
    "url": "https://www.shr.swiss",
    "address": "Esplanade de Pont-Rouge 9A, 1212 Lancy, Suisse"
  },
  "summary": "A well-constructed scenario can appear more likely than a less precisely described event. Research invites us to distinguish the coherence of a narrative from the probability of its conditions.",
  "section": "Research",
  "topic": "Decision-making",
  "place": {
    "name": "Geneva",
    "region": "Genève",
    "country": "CH"
  },
  "keyPoints": [
    {
      "heading": "What the literature establishes",
      "point": "Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman (1983, Psychological Review) showed that participants can judge the conjunction of two events to be more probable than one of those events alone."
    },
    {
      "heading": "How detail changes judgement",
      "point": "Amos Tversky and Derek J."
    },
    {
      "heading": "The premature conclusion",
      "point": "One might conclude that detailed scenarios should be abandoned."
    },
    {
      "heading": "What these findings do not establish",
      "point": "These studies rely on judgement tasks and do not directly measure decision quality in businesses in Geneva."
    },
    {
      "heading": "A practical check in Genève",
      "point": "As part of SHR’s “[Decision-making](/formation/prise-de-decision/geneve)” programme, one exercise is to review the scenarios considered by a Geneva committee: asset withdrawals in private banking, mission disruption in an international organisation, delivery delays in luxury watchmaking or counterparty default in commodity trading."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "authors": "Kahneman",
      "year": "1983",
      "source": "Psychological Review"
    },
    {
      "authors": "Koehler",
      "year": "1994",
      "source": "Psychological Review"
    }
  ],
  "wordCount": 422,
  "image": "https://www.shr.swiss/img/blog-editorial-2026-01-26-en.jpg?v=4",
  "translations": {
    "fr": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/scenario-detaille-ce-que-la-coherence-ne-garantit-pas",
    "en": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/scenario-detaille-ce-que-la-coherence-ne-garantit-pas-en",
    "de": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/scenario-detaille-ce-que-la-coherence-ne-garantit-pas-de",
    "it": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/scenario-detaille-ce-que-la-coherence-ne-garantit-pas-it"
  },
  "relatedPages": {
    "programme": "https://www.shr.swiss/formation/prise-de-decision/geneve",
    "city": "https://www.shr.swiss/formations-ville/geneve",
    "blog": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog"
  },
  "citationPolicy": "Citation autorisée avec mention « SHR — Swiss Human Resources » et lien vers l'article."
}