{
  "title": "Reconstructing a forecast: what hindsight can distort",
  "url": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/reconstituer-une-prevision-ce-que-le-recul-peut-deformer-en",
  "language": "en",
  "datePublished": "2025-08-10",
  "publisher": {
    "name": "SHR — Swiss Human Resources",
    "url": "https://www.shr.swiss",
    "address": "Esplanade de Pont-Rouge 9A, 1212 Lancy, Suisse"
  },
  "summary": "After an event, its outcome often seems more predictable than it originally was. That impression can distort what an organisation believes it has learned from its decisions.",
  "section": "Research",
  "topic": "Decision-making",
  "place": {
    "name": "Zurich",
    "region": "Zurich",
    "country": "CH"
  },
  "keyPoints": [
    {
      "heading": "What the literature establishes",
      "point": "Baruch Fischhoff (1975, Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance) demonstrated experimentally that knowing an event's outcome changes retrospective estimates of its probability."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Why the past becomes easier to read",
      "point": "In their review, Neal J."
    },
    {
      "heading": "The premature conclusion",
      "point": "It would be tempting to conclude that retrospective reviews are useless or that every explanation offered after an event is suspect."
    },
    {
      "heading": "What the evidence does not establish",
      "point": "The classic experiment examines judgements in controlled settings; it does not directly measure the quality of project reviews in Zurich businesses."
    },
    {
      "heading": "A practical check in Zurich",
      "point": "As part of SHR's [decision-making](/formation/prise-de-decision/zurich) programme, a Zurich team could test a protocol across a defined series of comparable decisions, such as service launches or IT migrations."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "authors": "Fischhoff",
      "year": "1975",
      "source": "Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance"
    },
    {
      "authors": "Vohs",
      "year": "2012",
      "source": "Perspectives on Psychological Science"
    }
  ],
  "wordCount": 441,
  "image": "https://www.shr.swiss/img/blog-Training-Decision-Making-Zurich-reconstituer-une-prevision-ce-que-le-recul-peut-deformer-en.jpg?v=4",
  "translations": {
    "fr": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/reconstituer-une-prevision-ce-que-le-recul-peut-deformer",
    "en": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/reconstituer-une-prevision-ce-que-le-recul-peut-deformer-en",
    "de": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/reconstituer-une-prevision-ce-que-le-recul-peut-deformer-de",
    "it": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/reconstituer-une-prevision-ce-que-le-recul-peut-deformer-it"
  },
  "relatedPages": {
    "programme": "https://www.shr.swiss/formation/prise-de-decision/zurich",
    "city": "https://www.shr.swiss/formations-ville/zurich",
    "blog": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog"
  },
  "citationPolicy": "Citation autorisée avec mention « SHR — Swiss Human Resources » et lien vers l'article."
}