{
  "title": "Forecasting needs: what present circumstances can distort",
  "url": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/prevoir-les-besoins-ce-que-la-situation-presente-peut-deformer-en",
  "language": "en",
  "datePublished": "2024-11-18",
  "publisher": {
    "name": "SHR — Swiss Human Resources",
    "url": "https://www.shr.swiss",
    "address": "Esplanade de Pont-Rouge 9A, 1212 Lancy, Suisse"
  },
  "summary": "Deciding for tomorrow means anticipating needs that differ from today’s. Research shows why this distinction remains difficult, even when it seems obvious.",
  "section": "Research",
  "topic": "Decision-making",
  "place": {
    "name": "Sion",
    "region": "Valais",
    "country": "CH"
  },
  "keyPoints": [
    {
      "heading": "What the literature establishes",
      "point": "George Loewenstein, Ted O’Donoghue and Matthew Rabin (2003, The Quarterly Journal of Economics) formalise projection bias: the tendency to overestimate how closely future preferences will resemble present preferences."
    },
    {
      "heading": "A temporary state influencing a future choice",
      "point": "Daniel Read and Barbara van Leeuwen (1998, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes) examine food choices made in advance, varying appetite at the time of choice and expected appetite at the time of consumption."
    },
    {
      "heading": "The premature conclusion",
      "point": "One might conclude that decisions should only be made during quiet periods."
    },
    {
      "heading": "What the evidence does not allow us to transfer",
      "point": "An experiment on appetite does not measure the quality of a staffing, maintenance or tourism-capacity decision."
    },
    {
      "heading": "A practical check in Sion",
      "point": "As part of SHR’s “[Decision-making](/formation-prise-de-decision-sion)” programme, an exercise in Sion could examine a resource allocation decision involving hydropower, healthcare, viticulture or Alpine tourism."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "authors": "Rabin",
      "year": "2003",
      "source": "The Quarterly Journal of Economics"
    },
    {
      "authors": "Leeuwen",
      "year": "1998",
      "source": "Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes"
    }
  ],
  "wordCount": 416,
  "image": "https://www.shr.swiss/img/blog-Training-Decision-Making-Sion-prevoir-les-besoins-ce-que-la-situation-presente-peut-deformer-en.jpg?v=4",
  "translations": {
    "fr": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/prevoir-les-besoins-ce-que-la-situation-presente-peut-deformer",
    "en": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/prevoir-les-besoins-ce-que-la-situation-presente-peut-deformer-en",
    "de": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/prevoir-les-besoins-ce-que-la-situation-presente-peut-deformer-de",
    "it": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/prevoir-les-besoins-ce-que-la-situation-presente-peut-deformer-it"
  },
  "relatedPages": {
    "programme": "https://www.shr.swiss/formation-prise-de-decision-sion",
    "city": "https://www.shr.swiss/formations-ville/sion",
    "blog": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog"
  },
  "citationPolicy": "Citation autorisée avec mention « SHR — Swiss Human Resources » et lien vers l'article."
}