{
  "title": "Sales forecasts: how credible is an expected signing date?",
  "url": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/previsions-commerciales-date-signature-lugano-en",
  "language": "en",
  "datePublished": "2024-12-15",
  "publisher": {
    "name": "SHR — Swiss Human Resources",
    "url": "https://www.shr.swiss",
    "address": "Esplanade de Pont-Rouge 9A, 1212 Lancy, Suisse"
  },
  "summary": "An expected signing date can look precise without being well founded. Research suggests distinguishing the salesperson's scenario from the experience of comparable deals.",
  "section": "Research",
  "topic": "High-Value Selling",
  "place": {
    "name": "Lugano",
    "region": "Tessin",
    "country": "CH"
  },
  "keyPoints": [
    {
      "heading": "What the literature establishes",
      "point": "Roger Buehler, Dale Griffin and Michael Ross (1994, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology) show that people can underestimate their completion times even when previous experience should encourage greater caution."
    },
    {
      "heading": "The inside scenario and the outside reference",
      "point": "Daniel Kahneman and Dan Lovallo (1993, Management Science) offer a theoretical analysis of how cautious choices can coexist with optimistic forecasts."
    },
    {
      "heading": "The premature conclusion",
      "point": "One might conclude that all expected timelines should simply be extended."
    },
    {
      "heading": "What the evidence cannot promise",
      "point": "These studies do not establish that historical comparisons automatically improve signing forecasts in banking, fashion or trading."
    },
    {
      "heading": "A practical check in Lugano",
      "point": "As part of SHR's « Vente à forte valeur ajoutée » programme, an exercise in Lugano could involve freezing the first expected signing date for each deal, together with its supporting reasons, over an observation period defined in advance."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "authors": "Ross",
      "year": "1994",
      "source": "Journal of Personality and Social Psychology"
    },
    {
      "authors": "Lovallo",
      "year": "1993",
      "source": "Management Science"
    }
  ],
  "wordCount": 419,
  "image": "https://www.shr.swiss/img/blog-Training-High-Value-Selling-Lugano-previsions-commerciales-date-signature-lugano-en.jpg?v=4",
  "translations": {
    "fr": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/previsions-commerciales-date-signature-lugano",
    "en": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/previsions-commerciales-date-signature-lugano-en",
    "de": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/previsions-commerciales-date-signature-lugano-de",
    "it": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/previsions-commerciales-date-signature-lugano-it"
  },
  "relatedPages": {
    "programme": "https://www.shr.swiss/formation-vente-forte-valeur-lugano",
    "city": "https://www.shr.swiss/formations-ville/lugano",
    "blog": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog"
  },
  "citationPolicy": "Citation autorisée avec mention « SHR — Swiss Human Resources » et lien vers l'article."
}