{
  "title": "Presenting risk: does your audience understand the denominator?",
  "url": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/presenter-un-risque-a-berne-rendre-les-denominateurs-visibles-en",
  "language": "en",
  "datePublished": "2025-09-13",
  "publisher": {
    "name": "SHR — Swiss Human Resources",
    "url": "https://www.shr.swiss",
    "address": "Esplanade de Pont-Rouge 9A, 1212 Lancy, Suisse"
  },
  "summary": "An accurate percentage can lead to an inaccurate interpretation. In some risk presentations, the decisive issue is how clearly the figures are linked to the populations they describe.",
  "section": "Research",
  "topic": "Public Speaking & Impact",
  "place": {
    "name": "Bern",
    "region": "Berne",
    "country": "CH"
  },
  "keyPoints": [
    {
      "heading": "What the literature establishes",
      "point": "Gerd Gigerenzer and Ulrich Hoffrage (1995, Psychological Review) showed, in Bayesian reasoning tasks, that natural frequencies could facilitate inferences that participants handled less successfully when given probabilities."
    },
    {
      "heading": "A representation that can be learned",
      "point": "Peter Sedlmeier and Gerd Gigerenzer (2001, Journal of Experimental Psychology: General) investigated training in Bayesian reasoning that included constructing natural-frequency representations."
    },
    {
      "heading": "The hasty conclusion",
      "point": "One might conclude that all percentages should be replaced with counts."
    },
    {
      "heading": "What these findings do not demonstrate",
      "point": "These studies concern reasoning and learning tasks, not presentations to committees in Berne."
    },
    {
      "heading": "A practical check in Berne",
      "point": "Within SHR’s “Public Speaking & impact” programme, an exercise to test in Berne would involve preparing two versions of the same presentation: one using conditional probabilities, the other natural frequencies, with comparable content and duration."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "authors": "Hoffrage",
      "year": "1995",
      "source": "Psychological Review"
    },
    {
      "authors": "Gigerenzer",
      "year": "2001",
      "source": "Journal of Experimental Psychology: General"
    }
  ],
  "wordCount": 443,
  "image": "https://www.shr.swiss/img/blog-Training-Public-Speaking-Impact-Bern-presenter-un-risque-a-berne-rendre-les-denominateurs-visibles-en.jpg?v=4",
  "translations": {
    "fr": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/presenter-un-risque-a-berne-rendre-les-denominateurs-visibles",
    "en": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/presenter-un-risque-a-berne-rendre-les-denominateurs-visibles-en",
    "de": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/presenter-un-risque-a-berne-rendre-les-denominateurs-visibles-de",
    "it": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/presenter-un-risque-a-berne-rendre-les-denominateurs-visibles-it"
  },
  "relatedPages": {
    "programme": "https://www.shr.swiss/formation/public-speaking/berne",
    "city": "https://www.shr.swiss/formations-ville/berne",
    "blog": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog"
  },
  "citationPolicy": "Citation autorisée avec mention « SHR — Swiss Human Resources » et lien vers l'article."
}