{
  "title": "Predictive tools: why one error is not enough to disqualify them",
  "url": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/outil-predictif-ce-qu-une-erreur-ne-suffit-pas-a-disqualifier-en",
  "language": "en",
  "datePublished": "2025-09-01",
  "publisher": {
    "name": "SHR — Swiss Human Resources",
    "url": "https://www.shr.swiss",
    "address": "Esplanade de Pont-Rouge 9A, 1212 Lancy, Suisse"
  },
  "summary": "An automated forecast that goes wrong can quickly become suspect. The useful question is whether the human alternative faces the same scrutiny.",
  "section": "Research",
  "topic": "Decision-making",
  "place": {
    "name": "Bern",
    "region": "Berne",
    "country": "CH"
  },
  "keyPoints": [
    {
      "heading": "What the literature establishes",
      "point": "Berkeley J."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Control as a condition of acceptance",
      "point": "Berkeley J."
    },
    {
      "heading": "The premature conclusion",
      "point": "One might conclude that simply allowing managers to adjust outputs will produce better decisions."
    },
    {
      "heading": "What the experiments do not guarantee",
      "point": "These experimental studies do not provide general validation of the predictive systems used in organisations."
    },
    {
      "heading": "A practical check in Berne",
      "point": "In Berne, an exercise within SHR’s “[Decision-making](/formation/prise-de-decision/berne)” programme could address a recurring forecast with no direct effect on individual rights: caseloads in federal administration, logistical needs in public health, service interventions in telecoms or component demand in precision manufacturing."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "authors": "Massey",
      "year": "2015",
      "source": "Journal of Experimental Psychology: General"
    },
    {
      "authors": "Massey",
      "year": "2018",
      "source": "Management Science"
    }
  ],
  "wordCount": 430,
  "image": "https://www.shr.swiss/img/blog-Training-Decision-Making-Bern-outil-predictif-ce-qu-une-erreur-ne-suffit-pas-a-disqualifier-en.jpg?v=4",
  "translations": {
    "fr": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/outil-predictif-ce-qu-une-erreur-ne-suffit-pas-a-disqualifier",
    "en": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/outil-predictif-ce-qu-une-erreur-ne-suffit-pas-a-disqualifier-en",
    "de": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/outil-predictif-ce-qu-une-erreur-ne-suffit-pas-a-disqualifier-de",
    "it": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/outil-predictif-ce-qu-une-erreur-ne-suffit-pas-a-disqualifier-it"
  },
  "relatedPages": {
    "programme": "https://www.shr.swiss/formation/prise-de-decision/berne",
    "city": "https://www.shr.swiss/formations-ville/berne",
    "blog": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog"
  },
  "citationPolicy": "Citation autorisée avec mention « SHR — Swiss Human Resources » et lien vers l'article."
}