{
  "title": "Expert judgement or simple rule: what half a century of research says",
  "url": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/jugement-expert-ou-regle-simple-ce-que-dit-un-demi-siecle-de-recherche-en",
  "language": "en",
  "datePublished": "2026-08-31",
  "publisher": {
    "name": "SHR — Swiss Human Resources",
    "url": "https://www.shr.swiss",
    "address": "Esplanade de Pont-Rouge 9A, 1212 Lancy, Suisse"
  },
  "summary": "In many forecasts, explicit rules match or beat expert judgement. The finding is robust, but applying it requires discernment.",
  "section": "Research",
  "topic": "Decision-making",
  "place": {
    "name": "Bern",
    "region": "Berne",
    "country": "CH"
  },
  "keyPoints": [
    {
      "heading": "The synthesis",
      "point": "William Grove and co-authors (2000, Psychological Assessment) meta-analyse 'mechanical' versus 'clinical' predictions: the former are on average as good or better in most studies.."
    },
    {
      "heading": "The extension",
      "point": "Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony and Cass Sunstein (2021, Noise, Little, Brown) show professional judgements on identical cases vary widely across people; the book synthesises heterogeneous work.."
    },
    {
      "heading": "The nuance",
      "point": "Rules excel mainly when situations repeat and criteria are measurable; with the unprecedented, judgement remains essential."
    },
    {
      "heading": "The limit of common practice",
      "point": "Hiring or allocation decisions often rest on an overall impression without weighted criteria set in advance.."
    },
    {
      "heading": "A practical check in Bern",
      "point": "For upcoming hires, set four separately scored criteria before the interview, then after a year compare scores with observed performance."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "authors": "Sunstein",
      "year": "2021",
      "source": "Noise, Little, Brown"
    }
  ],
  "wordCount": 143,
  "image": "https://www.shr.swiss/img/blog-editorial-2026-08-31-en.jpg?v=4",
  "translations": {
    "fr": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/jugement-expert-ou-regle-simple-ce-que-dit-un-demi-siecle-de-recherche",
    "en": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/jugement-expert-ou-regle-simple-ce-que-dit-un-demi-siecle-de-recherche-en",
    "de": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/jugement-expert-ou-regle-simple-ce-que-dit-un-demi-siecle-de-recherche-de",
    "it": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/jugement-expert-ou-regle-simple-ce-que-dit-un-demi-siecle-de-recherche-it"
  },
  "relatedPages": {
    "programme": "https://www.shr.swiss/formation/prise-de-decision/berne",
    "city": "https://www.shr.swiss/formations-ville/berne",
    "blog": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog"
  },
  "citationPolicy": "Citation autorisée avec mention « SHR — Swiss Human Resources » et lien vers l'article."
}