{
  "title": "Forecasting lead times with AI: does a precise date mean a sound forecast?",
  "url": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/ia-prevoir-un-delai-sans-fabriquer-de-certitude-en",
  "language": "en",
  "datePublished": "2024-11-10",
  "publisher": {
    "name": "SHR — Swiss Human Resources",
    "url": "https://www.shr.swiss",
    "address": "Esplanade de Pont-Rouge 9A, 1212 Lancy, Suisse"
  },
  "summary": "A precise delivery date makes coordination easier. On its own, however, it says nothing about the uncertainty the manager must bear.",
  "section": "Research",
  "topic": "Managing in the Age of Artificial Intelligence",
  "place": {
    "name": "Neuchâtel",
    "region": "Neuchâtel",
    "country": "CH"
  },
  "keyPoints": [
    {
      "heading": "What the literature establishes",
      "point": "Don Moore and Paul Healy (2008, Psychological Review) distinguish several forms of overconfidence: overestimating one's performance, placing oneself too favourably relative to others, and expressing excessive precision in one's beliefs."
    },
    {
      "heading": "An interval does not automatically make an estimate cautious",
      "point": "Jack Soll and Joshua Klayman (2004, Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition) examine overconfidence in interval estimates and show that the way estimates are elicited influences their calibration."
    },
    {
      "heading": "The hasty conclusion",
      "point": "One might conclude that announced lead times should always be widened."
    },
    {
      "heading": "What the evidence does not establish",
      "point": "These studies concern human judgement, not forecasts generated by AI for a workshop in Neuchâtel."
    },
    {
      "heading": "A practical check in Neuchâtel",
      "point": "Within SHR — Swiss Human Resources' programme « Manager à l’ère de l’intelligence artificielle », an exercise applicable in Neuchâtel would track the time taken by a recurring batch-validation operation in microtechnology, watchmaking or precision microelectronics."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "authors": "Healy",
      "year": "2008",
      "source": "Psychological Review"
    },
    {
      "authors": "Klayman",
      "year": "2004",
      "source": "Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition"
    }
  ],
  "wordCount": 415,
  "image": "https://www.shr.swiss/img/blog-Training-Managing-In-The-Age-Of-Artificial-Intelligence-Neuchatel-ia-prevoir-un-delai-sans-fabriquer-de-certitude-en.jpg?v=4",
  "translations": {
    "fr": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/ia-prevoir-un-delai-sans-fabriquer-de-certitude",
    "en": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/ia-prevoir-un-delai-sans-fabriquer-de-certitude-en",
    "de": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/ia-prevoir-un-delai-sans-fabriquer-de-certitude-de",
    "it": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/ia-prevoir-un-delai-sans-fabriquer-de-certitude-it"
  },
  "relatedPages": {
    "programme": "https://www.shr.swiss/formation-manager-ere-ia-neuchatel",
    "city": "https://www.shr.swiss/formations-ville/neuchatel",
    "blog": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog"
  },
  "citationPolicy": "Citation autorisée avec mention « SHR — Swiss Human Resources » et lien vers l'article."
}