{
  "title": "AI: do sales forecasts create their own confirmation?",
  "url": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/ia-previsions-commerciales-creent-elles-leur-propre-confirmation-en",
  "language": "en",
  "datePublished": "2024-07-20",
  "publisher": {
    "name": "SHR — Swiss Human Resources",
    "url": "https://www.shr.swiss",
    "address": "Esplanade de Pont-Rouge 9A, 1212 Lancy, Suisse"
  },
  "summary": "A forecast can change the activity it claims to anticipate. For managers, an outcome that matches the initial ranking is therefore not enough to validate the tool.",
  "section": "Research",
  "topic": "Managing in the Age of Artificial Intelligence",
  "place": {
    "name": "Vevey",
    "region": "Vaud",
    "country": "CH"
  },
  "keyPoints": [
    {
      "heading": "What the literature establishes",
      "point": "Robert King Merton (1948, The Antioch Review) describes the self-fulfilling prophecy: an initially false definition of a situation prompts behaviour that eventually makes it true."
    },
    {
      "heading": "When forecasts organise resources",
      "point": "Fabrizio Ferraro, Jeffrey Pfeffer and Robert Sutton (2005, Academy of Management Review) analyse how theories can become self-fulfilling by shaping institutional arrangements, norms and language."
    },
    {
      "heading": "The premature conclusion",
      "point": "It would be excessive to conclude that a forecast which influences action is necessarily poor."
    },
    {
      "heading": "What observed outcomes cannot settle",
      "point": "Neither article measures the accuracy of contemporary AI or its commercial effectiveness in Vevey."
    },
    {
      "heading": "A practical check in Vevey",
      "point": "As part of SHR — Swiss Human Resources’ « Manager à l'ère de l'intelligence artificielle » programme, an exercise could focus on a customer portfolio at the headquarters of a global food group or an SME on the Riviera."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "authors": "Merton",
      "year": "1948",
      "source": "The Antioch Review"
    },
    {
      "authors": "Sutton",
      "year": "2005",
      "source": "Academy of Management Review"
    }
  ],
  "wordCount": 439,
  "image": "https://www.shr.swiss/img/blog-Training-Managing-In-The-Age-Of-Artificial-Intelligence-Vevey-ia-previsions-commerciales-creent-elles-leur-propre-confirmation-en.jpg?v=4",
  "translations": {
    "fr": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/ia-previsions-commerciales-creent-elles-leur-propre-confirmation",
    "en": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/ia-previsions-commerciales-creent-elles-leur-propre-confirmation-en",
    "de": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/ia-previsions-commerciales-creent-elles-leur-propre-confirmation-de",
    "it": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/ia-previsions-commerciales-creent-elles-leur-propre-confirmation-it"
  },
  "relatedPages": {
    "programme": "https://www.shr.swiss/formation-manager-ere-ia-vevey",
    "city": "https://www.shr.swiss/formations-ville/vevey",
    "blog": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog"
  },
  "citationPolicy": "Citation autorisée avec mention « SHR — Swiss Human Resources » et lien vers l'article."
}