{
  "title": "AI on the job: is a precise forecast a reliable forecast?",
  "url": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/ia-on-the-job-une-prevision-precise-est-elle-fiable-en",
  "language": "en",
  "datePublished": "2026-03-31",
  "publisher": {
    "name": "SHR — Swiss Human Resources",
    "url": "https://www.shr.swiss",
    "address": "Esplanade de Pont-Rouge 9A, 1212 Lancy, Suisse"
  },
  "summary": "An assistant can assign a probability to a delay or an expected outcome. The precision of the number does not establish whether uncertainty has been properly assessed.",
  "section": "Research",
  "topic": "AI on the Job",
  "place": {
    "name": "Basel",
    "region": "Bâle-Ville",
    "country": "CH"
  },
  "keyPoints": [
    {
      "heading": "What the literature establishes",
      "point": "Don A."
    },
    {
      "heading": "The format of uncertainty matters too",
      "point": "Gerd Gigerenzer and Ulrich Hoffrage (1995, Psychological Review) show that Bayesian reasoning problems are solved more successfully when information is presented as natural frequencies rather than probabilities under the conditions studied."
    },
    {
      "heading": "The premature conclusion",
      "point": "One might conclude that it is enough to ask the assistant for its confidence level and translate it into a frequency."
    },
    {
      "heading": "What the evidence cannot guarantee",
      "point": "These studies concern human judgement, not the calibration of generative assistants in today's industrial processes."
    },
    {
      "heading": "A practical check in Bâle",
      "point": "Within SHR — Swiss Human Resources' “IA on the job” programme, a Basel team could select a recurring, non-critical event: missing an agreed sample receipt date for an international life sciences project at the interface between pharmaceuticals and Rhine logistics."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "authors": "Healy",
      "year": "2008",
      "source": "Psychological Review"
    },
    {
      "authors": "Hoffrage",
      "year": "1995",
      "source": "Psychological Review"
    }
  ],
  "wordCount": 423,
  "image": "https://www.shr.swiss/img/blog-editorial-2026-03-31-en.jpg?v=4",
  "translations": {
    "fr": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/ia-on-the-job-une-prevision-precise-est-elle-fiable",
    "en": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/ia-on-the-job-une-prevision-precise-est-elle-fiable-en",
    "de": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/ia-on-the-job-une-prevision-precise-est-elle-fiable-de",
    "it": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/ia-on-the-job-une-prevision-precise-est-elle-fiable-it"
  },
  "relatedPages": {
    "programme": "https://www.shr.swiss/formation/ia-on-the-job/bale",
    "city": "https://www.shr.swiss/formations-ville/bale",
    "blog": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog"
  },
  "citationPolicy": "Citation autorisée avec mention « SHR — Swiss Human Resources » et lien vers l'article."
}