{
  "title": "Deciding under ambiguity: what quantified risk does not capture",
  "url": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/decider-face-a-l-ambiguite-ce-que-le-risque-chiffre-ne-couvre-pas-en",
  "language": "en",
  "datePublished": "2026-05-13",
  "publisher": {
    "name": "SHR — Swiss Human Resources",
    "url": "https://www.shr.swiss",
    "address": "Esplanade de Pont-Rouge 9A, 1212 Lancy, Suisse"
  },
  "summary": "A poorly documented option is not necessarily more dangerous. Research suggests distinguishing the risk involved in a decision from the discomfort caused by unknown probabilities.",
  "section": "Research",
  "topic": "Decision-making",
  "place": {
    "name": "Lausanne",
    "region": "Vaud",
    "country": "CH"
  },
  "keyPoints": [
    {
      "heading": "What the literature establishes",
      "point": "Daniel Ellsberg (1961, The Quarterly Journal of Economics) distinguishes situations where probabilities are known from those where they are ambiguous."
    },
    {
      "heading": "The role of comparison",
      "point": "Craig R."
    },
    {
      "heading": "The premature conclusion",
      "point": "One might conclude that managers should overcome this reluctance and choose the unfamiliar more often."
    },
    {
      "heading": "What the evidence does not allow us to transfer",
      "point": "Choices between gambles reproduce neither the responsibilities of a medtech company nor the constraints of an international sports organisation."
    },
    {
      "heading": "A practical check in Lausanne",
      "point": "In Lausanne, SHR’s “[Decision-making](/formation/prise-de-decision/lausanne)” programme can draw on an exercise applicable to medtech companies, higher education institutions, international sport and scale-ups across the Lake Geneva region: for four weeks, document the probabilities invoked in partnership decisions."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "authors": "Ellsberg",
      "year": "1961",
      "source": "The Quarterly Journal of Economics"
    },
    {
      "authors": "Tversky",
      "year": "1995",
      "source": "The Quarterly Journal of Economics"
    }
  ],
  "wordCount": 408,
  "image": "https://www.shr.swiss/img/blog-editorial-2026-05-13-en.jpg?v=4",
  "translations": {
    "fr": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/decider-face-a-l-ambiguite-ce-que-le-risque-chiffre-ne-couvre-pas",
    "en": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/decider-face-a-l-ambiguite-ce-que-le-risque-chiffre-ne-couvre-pas-en",
    "de": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/decider-face-a-l-ambiguite-ce-que-le-risque-chiffre-ne-couvre-pas-de",
    "it": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/decider-face-a-l-ambiguite-ce-que-le-risque-chiffre-ne-couvre-pas-it"
  },
  "relatedPages": {
    "programme": "https://www.shr.swiss/formation/prise-de-decision/lausanne",
    "city": "https://www.shr.swiss/formations-ville/lausanne",
    "blog": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog"
  },
  "citationPolicy": "Citation autorisée avec mention « SHR — Swiss Human Resources » et lien vers l'article."
}