{
  "title": "A short run of success: what a few good results cannot establish",
  "url": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/courte-serie-ce-que-quelques-succes-ne-permettent-pas-de-conclure-en",
  "language": "en",
  "datePublished": "2025-07-14",
  "publisher": {
    "name": "SHR — Swiss Human Resources",
    "url": "https://www.shr.swiss",
    "address": "Esplanade de Pont-Rouge 9A, 1212 Lancy, Suisse"
  },
  "summary": "A few favourable results may be enough to convince a committee. They are not necessarily enough to establish that a method should be rolled out more widely.",
  "section": "Research",
  "topic": "Decision-making",
  "place": {
    "name": "Zurich",
    "region": "Zurich",
    "country": "CH"
  },
  "keyPoints": [
    {
      "heading": "What the literature establishes",
      "point": "Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman (1971, Psychological Bulletin) describe the belief that a small sample should faithfully reflect the properties of the population from which it is drawn."
    },
    {
      "heading": "The mechanism that makes the run convincing",
      "point": "Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman (1974, Science) describe, among other phenomena, insensitivity to sample size and mistaken intuitions about regression towards the mean."
    },
    {
      "heading": "The premature conclusion",
      "point": "One might conclude that managers should always wait for more data before deciding."
    },
    {
      "heading": "What the available evidence does not resolve",
      "point": "These classic articles do not directly assess rollout decisions in Zurich organisations, nor do they demonstrate that a particular procedure improves their profitability."
    },
    {
      "heading": "A practical check in Zurich",
      "point": "As part of SHR’s [decision-making](/formation-prise-de-decision-zurich) programme, a Zurich team could spend four weeks reviewing rollout proposals based on a pilot, whether for a banking journey, claims processing, a software feature or a headquarters process."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "authors": "Kahneman",
      "year": "1971",
      "source": "Psychological Bulletin"
    },
    {
      "authors": "Kahneman",
      "year": "1974",
      "source": "Science"
    }
  ],
  "wordCount": 442,
  "image": "https://www.shr.swiss/img/blog-Training-Decision-Making-Zurich-courte-serie-ce-que-quelques-succes-ne-permettent-pas-de-conclure-en.jpg?v=4",
  "translations": {
    "fr": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/courte-serie-ce-que-quelques-succes-ne-permettent-pas-de-conclure",
    "en": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/courte-serie-ce-que-quelques-succes-ne-permettent-pas-de-conclure-en",
    "de": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/courte-serie-ce-que-quelques-succes-ne-permettent-pas-de-conclure-de",
    "it": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/courte-serie-ce-que-quelques-succes-ne-permettent-pas-de-conclure-it"
  },
  "relatedPages": {
    "programme": "https://www.shr.swiss/formation-prise-de-decision-zurich",
    "city": "https://www.shr.swiss/formations-ville/zurich",
    "blog": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog"
  },
  "citationPolicy": "Citation autorisée avec mention « SHR — Swiss Human Resources » et lien vers l'article."
}