{
  "title": "Confidence in a forecast: what certainty does not guarantee",
  "url": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/confiance-dans-une-prevision-ce-que-la-certitude-ne-garantit-pas-en",
  "language": "en",
  "datePublished": "2026-06-06",
  "publisher": {
    "name": "SHR — Swiss Human Resources",
    "url": "https://www.shr.swiss",
    "address": "Esplanade de Pont-Rouge 9A, 1212 Lancy, Suisse"
  },
  "summary": "A confidently expressed forecast is not necessarily a reliable one. Research calls for distinguishing different forms of confidence and checking the one that concerns the precision of judgement.",
  "section": "Research",
  "topic": "Decision-making",
  "place": {
    "name": "Zurich",
    "region": "Zurich",
    "country": "CH"
  },
  "keyPoints": [
    {
      "heading": "What the literature establishes",
      "point": "Don A."
    },
    {
      "heading": "A range can still convey excessive certainty",
      "point": "Jack B."
    },
    {
      "heading": "The premature conclusion",
      "point": "One might conclude that ranges should always be widened or that confident people should be distrusted."
    },
    {
      "heading": "What the evidence cannot promise",
      "point": "These studies do not demonstrate that changing a forecasting form alone improves decisions in a bank, an insurance company or a technology business."
    },
    {
      "heading": "A practical check in Zurich",
      "point": "As part of SHR's [decision-making](/formation/prise-de-decision/zurich) programme, a Zurich team in financial services, insurance, tech or a European headquarters can keep a register of recurring forecasts for the same observable quantity, such as monthly customer enquiry volumes."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "authors": "Healy",
      "year": "2008",
      "source": "Psychological Review"
    },
    {
      "authors": "Klayman",
      "year": "2004",
      "source": "Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition"
    }
  ],
  "wordCount": 438,
  "image": "https://www.shr.swiss/img/blog-editorial-2026-06-06-en.jpg?v=4",
  "translations": {
    "fr": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/confiance-dans-une-prevision-ce-que-la-certitude-ne-garantit-pas",
    "en": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/confiance-dans-une-prevision-ce-que-la-certitude-ne-garantit-pas-en",
    "de": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/confiance-dans-une-prevision-ce-que-la-certitude-ne-garantit-pas-de",
    "it": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/confiance-dans-une-prevision-ce-que-la-certitude-ne-garantit-pas-it"
  },
  "relatedPages": {
    "programme": "https://www.shr.swiss/formation/prise-de-decision/zurich",
    "city": "https://www.shr.swiss/formations-ville/zurich",
    "blog": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog"
  },
  "citationPolicy": "Citation autorisée avec mention « SHR — Swiss Human Resources » et lien vers l'article."
}