{
  "title": "Comparing risks: what the number of cases does not tell us",
  "url": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/comparer-des-risques-ce-que-le-nombre-de-cas-ne-dit-pas-en",
  "language": "en",
  "datePublished": "2025-05-31",
  "publisher": {
    "name": "SHR — Swiss Human Resources",
    "url": "https://www.shr.swiss",
    "address": "Esplanade de Pont-Rouge 9A, 1212 Lancy, Suisse"
  },
  "summary": "A case count attracts attention; it does not, on its own, express a probability. How the denominator is presented can influence a choice.",
  "section": "Research",
  "topic": "Decision-making",
  "place": {
    "name": "Basel",
    "region": "Bâle-Ville",
    "country": "CH"
  },
  "keyPoints": [
    {
      "heading": "What the literature establishes",
      "point": "Lee A."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Understanding the ratio is not always enough",
      "point": "Veronika Denes-Raj and Seymour Epstein (1994, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology) observed that participants could prefer a set containing more winning tokens but a lower proportion of winners."
    },
    {
      "heading": "The premature conclusion",
      "point": "One might conclude that absolute counts should be removed from decision dashboards."
    },
    {
      "heading": "What these experiments do not demonstrate",
      "point": "These studies concern experimental probability-choice tasks, not decisions by managers in Basel."
    },
    {
      "heading": "A practical check in Bâle",
      "point": "Within SHR's “[Decision-making](/formation-prise-de-decision-bale)” programme, an exercise to test in Basel is to revisit a risk comparison from pharmaceuticals, life sciences, Rhine logistics or an international R&D team."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "authors": "Epstein",
      "year": "1992",
      "source": "Journal of Personality and Social Psychology"
    },
    {
      "authors": "Epstein",
      "year": "1994",
      "source": "Journal of Personality and Social Psychology"
    }
  ],
  "wordCount": 378,
  "image": "https://www.shr.swiss/img/blog-Training-Decision-Making-Basel-comparer-des-risques-ce-que-le-nombre-de-cas-ne-dit-pas-en.jpg?v=4",
  "translations": {
    "fr": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/comparer-des-risques-ce-que-le-nombre-de-cas-ne-dit-pas",
    "en": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/comparer-des-risques-ce-que-le-nombre-de-cas-ne-dit-pas-en",
    "de": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/comparer-des-risques-ce-que-le-nombre-de-cas-ne-dit-pas-de",
    "it": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/comparer-des-risques-ce-que-le-nombre-de-cas-ne-dit-pas-it"
  },
  "relatedPages": {
    "programme": "https://www.shr.swiss/formation-prise-de-decision-bale",
    "city": "https://www.shr.swiss/formations-ville/bale",
    "blog": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog"
  },
  "citationPolicy": "Citation autorisée avec mention « SHR — Swiss Human Resources » et lien vers l'article."
}