{
  "title": "In Sion, does a good outcome prove a good decision?",
  "url": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/a-sion-un-bon-resultat-prouve-t-il-une-bonne-decision-sion-en",
  "language": "en",
  "datePublished": "2024-10-31",
  "publisher": {
    "name": "SHR — Swiss Human Resources",
    "url": "https://www.shr.swiss",
    "address": "Esplanade de Pont-Rouge 9A, 1212 Lancy, Suisse"
  },
  "summary": "Judging a decision by its outcome seems reasonable. Research shows why that judgement can nevertheless be misleading.",
  "section": "Research",
  "topic": "Decision-making",
  "place": {
    "name": "Sion",
    "region": "Valais",
    "country": "CH"
  },
  "keyPoints": [
    {
      "heading": "What the literature establishes",
      "point": "Jonathan Baron and John C."
    },
    {
      "heading": "The past looks more predictable once we know it",
      "point": "Baruch Fischhoff (1975, Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance) showed that knowing an outcome retrospectively changes the probabilities assigned to events."
    },
    {
      "heading": "The premature conclusion",
      "point": "One might conclude that only the process should be assessed and outcomes ignored."
    },
    {
      "heading": "What these experiments do not demonstrate",
      "point": "These experiments establish effects under controlled conditions; they do not measure their magnitude in organisations in Sion."
    },
    {
      "heading": "A practical check in Sion",
      "point": "As part of SHR's [decision-making](/formation-prise-de-decision-sion) programme, a team in Sion can test a record dated before the choice, documenting options, available information, uncertainties and reasoning—for hydropower maintenance, healthcare service organisation, vineyard work or the opening of a tourism facility."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "authors": "Hershey",
      "year": "1988",
      "source": "Journal of Personality and Social Psychology"
    },
    {
      "authors": "Fischhoff",
      "year": "1975",
      "source": "Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance"
    }
  ],
  "wordCount": 419,
  "image": "https://www.shr.swiss/img/blog-Training-Decision-Making-Sion-a-sion-un-bon-resultat-prouve-t-il-une-bonne-decision-sion-en.jpg?v=4",
  "translations": {
    "fr": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/a-sion-un-bon-resultat-prouve-t-il-une-bonne-decision-sion",
    "en": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/a-sion-un-bon-resultat-prouve-t-il-une-bonne-decision-sion-en",
    "de": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/a-sion-un-bon-resultat-prouve-t-il-une-bonne-decision-sion-de",
    "it": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog/a-sion-un-bon-resultat-prouve-t-il-une-bonne-decision-sion-it"
  },
  "relatedPages": {
    "programme": "https://www.shr.swiss/formation-prise-de-decision-sion",
    "city": "https://www.shr.swiss/formations-ville/sion",
    "blog": "https://www.shr.swiss/blog"
  },
  "citationPolicy": "Citation autorisée avec mention « SHR — Swiss Human Resources » et lien vers l'article."
}